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Category: For Investors
What the Looming Debt Ceiling Deadline Means for Investors
From an email sent to IIM investors on May 8, 2023… The federal debt limit is once again in the news as the country approaches a critical deadline on June 1. Investors are understandably nervous about Washington failing to reach an agreement, a possibility that both sides agree would be a self-inflicted catastrophe. While it’s […]
IIM International Portfolios: Q1 2023
No Beautiful Balloons I don’t think The Fifth Dimension was thinking of Chines spy instruments when they asked if we wanted “to fly in my beautiful balloon,” but white balloons, which China claimed were rogue weather monitors, came traveling over the US and South America in February. The US shot down one off the East […]
On Ongoing Banking Turmoil and Staying Opportunistic
From an email sent to IIM investors on March 21, 2023… The banking crisis that began in the U.S. spread to Europe late last week. Concerns over the solvency of Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second largest “global systemically important bank” (G-SIB), were due in no small part to recent runs on U.S. banks. What made Credit […]
On Bank Failures and Risks to the Financial System
From an email sent to IIM investors on March 13, 2023… The recent failure of three U.S. banks has raised concerns over the economy and financial system. The situation is still evolving and there is plenty of speculation as to what might come next. One significant development is that government officials from the Treasury, Federal […]
IIM International Portfolios: 2022 Letter
A Year of Geopolitical, Economic and Financial Tectonic shifts. The earth seemed to tilt on its axis in 2022 more than usual. Russia invaded the Ukraine in February and both sides battled throughout the year. North Korea launched ballistic missiles over Japan. China threatened Taiwan’s independence. The UK lost its monarch of over 70 years […]
IIM 2022 Macro Mailbag
Below are five videos containing Q&A about the economy in 2022. You can also download a PDF of the full slidedeck here at this link. Video 1: Intro and TL;DR Version Video 2: History & Sentiment Video 3: Economic Indicators Video 4: Rates & Housing Video 5: Elections & Cycles Pls let me know if […]
IIM International Portfolios: YTD thru Q3 2022
This Is The End No, it’s not the end of my investment career, but these are the last song lyrics I’ll write for you. (Edward Bear). Hopefully, we are coming to the end of the Fed’s utilizing interest rates to wage war on inflation, but in the meantime, Putin’s continued annexation of Ukraine, the drop […]
The Importance of Staying Invested During Inflation
From an email sent to IIM investors on September 15, 2022… The upside to challenging weeks in the market like this one is that they remind us that long-term investment success requires patience. It’s important to never focus on or overreact to short-term market performance – especially after a single day. However, it’s also valuable […]
On Bear Markets and Volatility
From an email sent out to IIM investors on June 14, 2022: Good evening, IIM investors. The S&P 500 officially fell to bear market levels this week. Rapid inflation across the economy has affected consumers and businesses, raising questions about spending and corporate profits. These pressures have pushed interest rates higher across the curve, breaking […]
How Long-Term Investors Can Be Optimistic When Others are Negative
From an email sent out to IIM investors on May 12th, 2022: Good evening, IIM investors. The optimistic contrarian is the rarest of investors. Pessimism can make it hard to distinguish between exaggerated and real risks – and is often taken more seriously than optimism…which, in times of stress, can be hard to distinguish from […]