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Island Investing

Riffs, rants, and the upside of investing from way off Wall Street

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Category: Commentary

How the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package Impacts Investors

With the recent $1.9 trillion stimulus package now signed into law, more than $5 trillion has been authorized over the past year to combat the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Like its predecessors, this bill sends checks to households, supports small businesses, extends unemployment insurance, funds healthcare initiatives and more.  Although this spending is […]

How Investors Should React to Rising COVID-19 Cases

From an email sent out to all investors… Good morning, IIM investors. As COVID-19 cases continue to rise, new restrictions and lockdown measures are being considered. Some states have implemented curfews, dining restrictions, and mask rules in an attempt to curb the exponential spread of the disease. This has often been a heated political issue […]

What the Worst GDP Decline in History Means for Investors

From an email sent out to IIM investors… Good evening, IIM investors. The economic recovery continues to send mixed signals in early August. Increased COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country have led to increased restrictions by local governments and businesses. Nonetheless, there are clear signs that the economy is getting back on track. The […]

IIM International Portfolios: First Half of 2020

Sturm und Drang Our hearts go out to those whose loved ones are being impacted by COVID-19; we empathize with those businesses that are trying to find a path forward during this difficult time. The Market As if this insidious virus wasn’t enough of a challenge, investors had to deal with early tropical storms, a […]

Seven Insights for the Second Half of 2020

From an email sent to IIM investors on July 2, 2020: After collapsing by 22 million in March and April, 4.8 million workers returned to work in June, according to this morning’s jobs report – significantly more than the 3 million to 4 million consensus prediction among surveyed economists. This is the second consecutive month […]

Historic Unemployment and the Months Ahead

From an email sent May 13, 2020: Good morning, IIM investors. Given the nature of this COVID crisis, recent unemployment numbers are particularly important to understand. Below is some context for how we’re thinking about them.  It’s also the time of year that RIA firms like ours are required to send out updated versions of […]

An Economy in Recession

From an email sent April 30, 2020: Good evening, IIM investors. This week’s GDP report formally confirmed what you probably already knew: the economy is either already in recession, or soon will be. That report was unique not only because it was rooted in a global pandemic, but because quarterly economic data won’t really tell […]

Negative Oil Prices?!?!

From an email sent April 22, 2020: Good evening, IIM investors. The nationwide shutdown in response to the coronavirus has hit all corners of the economy, including the energy sector. The oil market made historic moves on Monday, as per those breathless headlines about the price of crude falling into negative territory for the first […]

Coronavirus Versus the Fed

From an email sent on March 19, 2020: Good evening, IIM investors. This week we appear to be witnessing the worst psychological – though not statistical – impact of COVID-19. While we are currently waiting on the details of the fiscal stimulus program that will help combat the economic effects of the coronavirus, the monetary […]

Thoughts on Thursday’s Market Drop

From an email sent on March 13, 2020: Good evening again, IIM investors. After 11 years, a perfect storm around the new coronavirus has pushed markets into bear territory. The World Health Organization officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, markets were disappointed by government policy responses, and containment measures increased as cases continue to […]