Category Archives: Commentary

Seven Insights for the Second Half of 2020

From an email sent to IIM investors on July 2, 2020: After collapsing by 22 million in March and April, 4.8 million workers returned to work in June, according to this morning’s jobs report – significantly more than the 3 … read more…

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Historic Unemployment and the Months Ahead

From an email sent May 13, 2020: Good morning, IIM investors. Given the nature of this COVID crisis, recent unemployment numbers are particularly important to understand. Below is some context for how we’re thinking about them.  It’s also the time … read more…

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An Economy in Recession

From an email sent April 30, 2020: Good evening, IIM investors. This week’s GDP report formally confirmed what you probably already knew: the economy is either already in recession, or soon will be. That report was unique not only because … read more…

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