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Island Investing

Riffs, rants, and the upside of investing from way off Wall Street

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What the Worst GDP Decline in History Means for Investors

From an email sent out to IIM investors… Good evening, IIM investors. The economic recovery continues to send mixed signals in early August. Increased COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country have led to increased restrictions by local governments and businesses. Nonetheless, there are clear signs that the economy is getting back on track. The […]

IIM International Portfolios: First Half of 2020

Sturm und Drang Our hearts go out to those whose loved ones are being impacted by COVID-19; we empathize with those businesses that are trying to find a path forward during this difficult time. The Market As if this insidious virus wasn’t enough of a challenge, investors had to deal with early tropical storms, a […]

Seven Insights for the Second Half of 2020

From an email sent to IIM investors on July 2, 2020: After collapsing by 22 million in March and April, 4.8 million workers returned to work in June, according to this morning’s jobs report – significantly more than the 3 million to 4 million consensus prediction among surveyed economists. This is the second consecutive month […]

Letter to Investors: Tarpon Folio – June 2020

Dear Tarpon Investors, Several quick notes before updating you on Tarpon: 1. The topics I was hoping to cover in this year’s Annual Investor Meeting will be delivered via a series of emails later this summer. 2. Goldman Sachs is buying FOLIO. Stay tuned for what, if anything, that may mean for us. 3. Here […]

Historic Unemployment and the Months Ahead

From an email sent May 13, 2020: Good morning, IIM investors. Given the nature of this COVID crisis, recent unemployment numbers are particularly important to understand. Below is some context for how we’re thinking about them.  It’s also the time of year that RIA firms like ours are required to send out updated versions of […]

An Economy in Recession

From an email sent April 30, 2020: Good evening, IIM investors. This week’s GDP report formally confirmed what you probably already knew: the economy is either already in recession, or soon will be. That report was unique not only because it was rooted in a global pandemic, but because quarterly economic data won’t really tell […]

Negative Oil Prices?!?!

From an email sent April 22, 2020: Good evening, IIM investors. The nationwide shutdown in response to the coronavirus has hit all corners of the economy, including the energy sector. The oil market made historic moves on Monday, as per those breathless headlines about the price of crude falling into negative territory for the first […]

IIM International Portfolios: Q1 2020

“When We Are Absent One From the Other” In 2019, the equity market overcame trade disruptions, Brexit fears and slowing economic growth only to be impaired this year by a piece of RNA that jumped  from bats to humans, humans to humans, city to city and country to country. Travel restrictions were put in place, […]

Two COVID Relief Checklists

For Individuals: The checklist below covers the new emergency relief options for individuals to consider. It includes emergency relief options outlined in:  The CARES Act Families First Coronavirus Response Act Executive orders IRS changes And other relief options specific to COVID-19 as they pertain to individuals  Download the COVID Relief Checklist for Individuals here. Please […]

Coronavirus Versus the Fed

From an email sent on March 19, 2020: Good evening, IIM investors. This week we appear to be witnessing the worst psychological – though not statistical – impact of COVID-19. While we are currently waiting on the details of the fiscal stimulus program that will help combat the economic effects of the coronavirus, the monetary […]