September no doubt felt like a frustrating end to an already
tough quarter. Since just the end of June you've probably questioned the wisdom of politicians in D.C., credit rating agencies, European
governments, hurricane forecasters, the Dolphins coaching staff
and/or your portfolio manager.
There's not much of real significance to add on those first few issues beyond what I've already shared. And when it comes to Tarpon and
Gecko, your portfolio manager continues to ride it out. This
may seem foolish to some of you, given our recent bruises and
the constant drone of dour headlines of late. Suddenly, it
seems, everyone has become a global macro trader, and
the next move is obvious.
Except, of course, it isn't. Whatever happens in the market
over the course of the next few months and years will be
more driven by unforeseen developments and random
Brownian motion than the trends and conclusions market traders
now think they can foresee. To paraphrase the rationalist
philosopher Karl Popper, "What we all will next know will
change what happens next - and we can't know what we'll know
next, since if we could we'd know it now."
Actually, that might have been Yogi Berra.
Either way, it's useless to try to predict the market. Europe and our own economy demand much attention these days, but I
have grown weary of the cacophony of calamitous
predictions from alarmists. It's much more enjoyable to actually
focus on investing. So in this letter, I thought I'd get back
And rather than try to directly address whatever macro angst you might be
feeling, this time I thought instead I'd try to show you what I'm
So I'd like to present to you my formal analysis of Tarpon
Folio holding Clearwire. It's a lengthy report
that was published earlier this week on a popular website for
investing geeks called Seeking Alpha.
Please check it out at the link below. At times it can get a
little wonky, but I'd like to think it's a thorough overview
of the company. It also includes more valuation work than I typically include in these letters. Most
important, though, is that it gives a good glimpse into
my own mindset these days.
As I think you'll see, there are some great opportunities out
there. You've just got to be willing to dig - and
then to be patient during months like the one we just had.
So please check out my article on Seeking Alpha by clicking
the link below:
Value Investor's Case For Clearwire."
And here is a follow-up article I wrote, too:
Postscript: The Legend of John Stanton."
I hope you find them useful. Please let me know if you have any