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Island Investing

Riffs, rants, and the upside of investing from way off Wall Street


Letter to Investors: Tarpon Folio Q3 ’21

The full letter can be found here at this link. An excerpt:

“Being a portfolio manager is a perennial search to find – and then attempt to profitably exploit – systematic biases in the stock market.

I would argue that nowhere has our current political dysfunction created more profitable biases to exploit than in the energy market.

Some of which are only now starting to be recognized by the public.

Recent energy headlines are a Rorschach test. Politicos see spiking global natural gas prices as the result of ideologically-driven energy policies. Gold bugs see them as symptoms of a broader inflationary wave. And oil ministers see the natural gas crisis in Europe as proof the global energy transition is being mishandled.

I see those as all symptoms of a larger truth:

The world has been under-investing in fossil fuels for the last five years.

Which means a lot of folks may soon learn another harder truth:

Political beliefs should play no role in investing.”

More at the link.