Things Investors Should Not Fear

I sent out my latest Letter to Investors in the Tarpon Folio this weekend. Here’s a link if you’d like to read my thoughts on the debt ceiling, the end of QE2, inflation, interest rates, high gas prices, the property bubble in China, and/or a handful of other topics I’ve been getting emailed about lately. And you can sign up to receive my letters here.

As I mentioned in the letter, I don’t normally put too much emphasis on macro predictions, market volatility, or noise in the media in general. But it’s also easy to get depressed these days if all you hear is headline news. I think it’s important for long-term investors to realize two things in particular during times like this:

1 – Not all market downturns should be avoided. Some represent opportunity. This is one of them.

2 – Things are rarely as bad as you initially fear. Once you truly realize that you can not only handle volatility in the stock market, but do better later because of it, the market will lose its ability to make you anxious.

Also, in reference to my point in the letter about the question of who is going to buy Treasuries once QE2 stops, I thought this was an interesting take from the CEO of Blackrock, the largest asset manager in the world:

BlackRock Inc.’s (BLK) chief executive, Laurence Fink, said Friday that as the Federal Reserve exits its bond-buying program and investors seek to lower their risk, the private sector will move “huge” into U.S. Treasury debt issues.

“Investors are de-risking,” Fink told CNBC in an interview. “They are frightened of the world and all these issues we have in front of us.”

As a result, he said, “Banks are going to be forced to invest in Treasurys.

“As we’re weaned off all this purchasing from the Fed, we see a huge demand from the private sector.”

Fink also said he doesn’t see any need for another round of quantitative easing — the latest Fed buying is known as QE2 — because “we still have positive growth.” The CEO anticipates the U.S. economy to grow by about 2% for all of 2011.

Again, there will be no black hole of demand for Treasuries on July 1st. That’s just silly. Banks are sitting on hundreds of billions.

More in my letter here.

Disclaimer: This post in no way constitutes investment advice. Same for my Letters to Investors. Commentary on this blog or my emails should never be relied on in making an investment decision.

Cale Smith

About Cale Smith

Portfolio Manager at Islamorada Investment Management.
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