My next update for Tarpon Folio investors will be coming out soon. In the interim, here are some thoughts. I’ll post more info this coming week on the blog, too.
I shot this about a week ago, and intended to package it up in one of my usual email updates that should have gone out today, but, well, I’m still working on the rest of the info I wanted to include with it. I suppose I’ve been more focused on managing the portfolio lately than writing about the portfolio.
So, later this week I’ll get more into some of the topics I skim over pretty briefly here, including the overblown threat of a double dip recession, and why now is a good time to be an investor.
1 – I’d put the probability of us going into a double dip recession at about 20%. For the sake of the mental exercise, though, let’s say we do see a double dip. It’s hard to see it being anything other than a mild one – if for no other reason than housing is already near a bottom, banks have already been re-booting themselves with new capital, and big companies have already gone through rounds of deep layoffs – and they’re sitting on historic piles of cash. So even if I’m wrong, I believe the downside is limited. At least in terms of investing.
2 – Watching myself say “stocks are cheap” a few times there gave me a creepy kind of CNBC feel. I’ll put more meat on those bones soon, too. Stocks are not as cheap as they were eighteen months ago, but the yield on the Dow is higher right now than on 10 year Treasuries, which I think is notable. Also – what might turn this market around in the next few weeks? Corporate earnings.
3 – Just to be clear, the changes I have made in the portfolio lately had nothing to do with performance, and everything to do with there being cheaper/better places to put our money as the market has declined. The gaps between what I believe our companies are worth and the prices they are currently trading at is large. This makes me smile.
Again, I’ll put out some more detailed thoughts on the macroeconomic situation later this week as soon as they’re done. But first, I’ve got some hot dogs, beer and parades to attend to…
Please stay tuned. And Happy 4th!
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