Presentation at TIB Special Shareholder Meeting

Below is the presentation that TIB Financial (NASDAQ:TIBB) gave at the special meeting of shareholders last week in Key Largo. Shareholders approved the increase in shares authorized, as per today’s press release. For those readers up north, TIB was founded here in Islamorada in 1974 – “TIB” stands for “The Islamorada Bank” – and as you’d expect, there’s a lot of interest in the Keys about the company.

Next up, TIB will attempt to sell a rather large chunk of new shares to institutional investors in order to comply with the regulators’ new capital ratio requirements. Though it seemed to cause some anxiety at the shareholders meeting, I don’t anticipate TIB having any problems finding institutional buyers for those shares. Despite its current woes, which have clearly been hard on a lot of local shareholders, TIB does still have a franchise in banking in the Keys. And never underestimate the ability of investment bankers to get a raise done when millions of dollars of fees are at stake. Just how Wall Street works.

Were I already an investor in TIBB, I’d key in on the three slides below, which speak to (1) some signs of progress in the business in Q2, most notably in indirect lending, (2) the intended use of proceeds from the raise, which includes a large cushion and (3) the bogeys management has set as targets to measure success after the turnaround.

While I wouldn’t be a Pollyanna about the road to come for TIB, I wouldn’t necessarily let the despair of large paper losses color my thoughts about the future too much, either.

If you’re considering becoming an investor in TIB at recent prices, I’d recommend doing the same analysis that the institutions who are considering buying shares in the raise are likely doing. There are probably too many variables to put together an in-depth model that anyone could have a high degree of confidence in, but you could certainly model a handful of different scenarios to get some brackets around a valuation. There’s also a rough but reasonable way to determine a ballpark value for shares in the long-term.

More specifically, you could attempt to determine what TIBB’s normalized earnings would look like once it’s out of this current ditch, apply pre-credit-crisis-level loan loss provisions, then account for taxes, TARP dividends and factor in the dilution associated with the pending raise, assuming a share price near today’s. TIBB appears to have had a historical P/E ration of close to 16, too, which could be used as is, or given a haircut as you feel is appropriate. When multiplying the appropriate P/E times that normalized earnings per share figure, you’d get an approximate value for the company in a more normal operating environment. No telling how long it might take the company to reach that state again, but it’s clearly going to take some time.

While I haven’t followed TIBB too closely nor too long, I do think the special shareholders meeting last Wednesday was probably the emotional low point for a lot of locals and the company, too. Water under the bridge now, though. Numbers on the scoreboard will tell the story from here on out.

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Cale Smith

About Cale Smith

Portfolio Manager at Islamorada Investment Management.
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